Pakistan’s power purchase price 2027 projections put the rate at Rs27.31 per kilowatt-hour, with the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee estimating a total procurement cost of Rs3.55 trillion under its base-case scenario.
The projections form part of the rebasing of consumer-end electricity tariffs for ex-Wapda distribution companies, scheduled to take effect from January 1, 2027. The exercise will determine the revised reference costs underpinning electricity tariffs for the new period.
Power purchase price 2027 scenarios
According to CPPA-G’s forecast, the projected price ranges from Rs25.88 per unit under the ideal scenario to Rs29.26 per unit under the second-worst-case scenario. The spread reflects the potential impact of fuel costs, exchange-rate movements and capacity payments on the supply chain.
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority has scheduled a public hearing on the projections for November 3, 2026, at Nepra Tower in Islamabad, with online participation also available. Interested and affected parties have been invited to submit comments and objections.
Under the base case, CPPA-G has assumed annual electricity demand growth of 2.60 per cent, an exchange rate of Rs279 per US dollar and electricity sales of 130,081 gigawatt-hours to distribution companies.
| Scenario | Projected price per unit |
|---|---|
| Ideal | Rs25.88 |
| RLNG and gas mix | Rs26.44 |
| Base case | Rs27.31 |
| Demand sensitivity | Rs27.57 |
| Worst case-I | Rs28.84 |
| Worst case-II | Rs29.26 |
In the two worst-case scenarios, the rupee is assumed to weaken to Rs290 against the US dollar, compared with Rs279 in the other scenarios. The demand-sensitivity scenario assumes annual demand growth of just 0.70 per cent, reducing sales to 127,937 GWh.
Capacity charges dominate the bill
Capacity charges account for the largest share of the projected cost, estimated at Rs1.91 trillion, equivalent to Rs14.72 per unit. Fuel costs are projected at Rs1.32 trillion, or Rs10.14 per unit, while variable operations and maintenance expenses stand at Rs70.58 billion, or Rs0.54 per unit.
Transmission-related costs and Ministry of Finance charges are projected at a combined Rs248.30 billion, or Rs1.91 per unit. The forecast indicates that capacity payments will remain the major component of procurement costs, while fuel expenses and currency movements could further influence the overall price during 2027.
Across all six scenarios, the assumptions include a Karachi Interbank Offered Rate of 11.70 per cent, a Secured Overnight Financing Rate of 3.98 per cent, US inflation of 2.10 per cent, domestic inflation of 8.20 per cent and National Grid Company losses of 2.50 per cent.
The projections land as industry groups warn of an unbearable tariff burden. The Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry has asked Nepra to reject Rs268 billion in prior-year adjustment claims built into the distributors’ revenue requirements.
What it means for consumers
The projected purchase price should not be interpreted as the final retail tariff, which will depend on Nepra’s determinations and applicable taxes, duties, subsidies and other components.
Still, the base case points to continued pressure on household budgets. The Power Division recently capped September fuel charges at Rs2.56 per unit, far below the Rs5-6 per unit consumers feared, showing how rebasing decisions translate directly into monthly bills.
The November 3 hearing will give stakeholders a chance to challenge the assumptions behind the numbers before the revised tariff framework takes effect from January 2027.
Is Rs27.31 the final tariff consumers will pay?
No. It is CPPA-G’s projected purchase price under the base case. The final retail tariff depends on Nepra’s determination plus taxes, duties and subsidies.
What drives the cost?
Capacity payments to power plants make up the largest share at Rs14.72 per unit, followed by fuel costs at Rs10.14 per unit.
When will the new tariffs apply?
The rebased consumer-end tariffs for ex-Wapda distribution companies take effect from January 1, 2027, after Nepra’s November 3 hearing.
*Source: ProPakistani*
