The Alberta referendum result delivered a decisive verdict: residents voted by a large majority to remain part of Canada in the province’s first-ever referendum on separation, handing Prime Minister Mark Carney a much-needed political win as he tries to unify the country during a trade war with the United States.
With three-quarters of votes counted at 5:45am on Tuesday (1145 GMT), 76 per cent of Albertans had backed the “remain” side, against 24 per cent in favour of holding a binding vote on separation. The referendum was nonbinding.
“Albertans made a clear choice,” Carney said in a statement. “They chose unity, to build together, and to take care of each other.”
Alberta referendum result defies separatist campaign
Pollsters and analysts had dismissed the chance of a separatist victory in Monday’s vote. Surveys had shown only about one-third of residents in the western energy-producing province supported a future referendum on leaving Canada.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who announced the referendum in May, said she was “very pleased” that early results showed widespread support for remaining in Canada. She said she would address Albertans at 6:45pm on Tuesday to discuss “where our province goes from here”.
A small but vocal group of separatists had campaigned for months for an independent Alberta. They argued that the province’s energy wealth was subsidising poorer parts of Canada and that it would be far richer freed from Ottawa’s bureaucracy.
Last week, Carney told a rally in Calgary that voting to leave Canada would be “a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division”.
The result delivers the outcome Carney needed. Monday’s vote was the second separatist challenge he had faced in two weeks. On October 5, an independence-minded party won power in the mainly French-speaking province of Quebec but fell short of the majority needed to hold a vote on breaking with Canada. Quebec held independence referendums in 1980 and 1995, and both failed.
The background to the vote, including the ballot question and the campaign arguments, was covered in our earlier report ahead of polling day.
Trump factor looms over the result
There was no immediate reaction to the outcome from US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly spoken about annexing Canada. In January, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said of Alberta: “I think we should let them come down into the US.”
Carney, who grew up mostly in Alberta, has acknowledged that Albertans have often felt slighted by Ottawa. He has pointed to his government’s fast-tracking of a proposed new pipeline, with Alberta and the federal government as majority owners, and to Alberta’s critical role in helping Canada reduce its dependence on the United States.
First Nations groups also objected to the idea of an independent Alberta, noting that their land treaties with Ottawa predate the province’s creation.
The result is unlikely to end the independence movement. Before the referendum, some separatist leaders said they would keep pursuing another vote even if most Albertans voted to remain.
What was the Alberta referendum result?
With three-quarters of votes counted, 76 per cent voted to remain part of Canada and 24 per cent backed a binding vote on separation. The referendum was nonbinding.
Why does it matter for Carney?
It hands the prime minister a clear win as he battles separatist pressures in two provinces and a trade war with the United States.
Could there be another referendum?
Separatist leaders have said they will continue to pursue another vote, so the movement is unlikely to disappear despite the decisive result.
