DRAFT — Pakistan’s Q4 Growth Slows to 2% as Industry Contracts 4.7%

• Suggested slug: pakistan-q4-growth-slows-2-percent-fy2026
• Category: Pakistan Economy
• Focus keyphrase: Pakistan Q4 growth
• SEO title: Pakistan Q4 Growth Slows to 2% as Industry Contracts
• Meta description: Pakistan grew 2% in April-June FY2025-26 as industry shrank 4.7%; import data was also revised up $14.8bn over five years.
• Tags: GDP growth, Pakistan economy, National Accounts Committee, PBS, industry, trade data, imports
• Original element: explainer context plus own data point — links to Feature Pakistan’s earlier fiscal coverage (Aurangzeb’s 22-year-low deficit announcement) and fuel-price tracking, explaining what the slowdown and the data revision mean for the economy
• Source: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2635772/fourth-quarter-growth-slows-to-2 (Tribune, published 02:58 PKT 20 Oct 2026)
• Story date: 19 October 2026

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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economic growth slowed to 2% in the final quarter of the last fiscal year as the industrial sector contracted sharply, while the government also approved a major upward revision of import data going back five years.

The National Accounts Committee (NAC) approved the “fresh” growth figure for the fourth quarter (April-June) of fiscal year 2025-26 at its 118th meeting on Monday, chaired by the secretary of the Ministry of Planning and Development.

“Due to a high base growth of 6.1% in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, the economy has posted a modest growth of 2% during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026,” the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said in its statement after the meeting.

The slower final quarter also forced a slight downward revision of the full-year growth rate for the last fiscal year, now put at 3.65%.

Industry drags, agriculture holds up

The industrial sector contracted 4.7% in the quarter, pulling the overall rate down. The government attributed the slump largely to the high base effect — industry had grown strongly in the same quarter last year — but the PBS statement acknowledged that the prolonged period of fiscal stabilisation has hurt the formal sector, while regional tensions and higher fuel prices dampened demand.

Large-scale manufacturing grew by a mere 0.41% in the April-June quarter, compared with 2.97% a year earlier. The electricity, gas and water supply segment contracted by a striking 33.2%, which the PBS linked to an extremely high base growth of 123%, lower energy subsidies and a high consumer price index deflator.

There were bright spots. Mining and quarrying grew 8.9% on higher mineral output, including gas (11.73%), oil (22.20%) and coal (8.17%). Construction posted 3.52% growth on higher cement production and public infrastructure spending.

Agriculture grew 3.7%, with important crops up 2.2% on stronger wheat, rice and sugarcane benchmarks. Services expanded 3.62%, with wholesale and retail trade up 0.75% and transport and storage up 3.3%.

The $14.8 billion data revision

In a significant parallel decision, the NAC approved the incorporation of revised import data for fiscal years 2021 to 2025, adding a cumulative $14.8 billion to officially reported imports.

The revision follows reporting gaps between the PBS and the more comprehensive Pakistan Single Window (PSW) system. A year ago, The Express Tribune reported that imports had been underreported by as much as $11 billion for just two fiscal years — a story that triggered scrutiny by the government and the International Monetary Fund, culminating in Monday’s correction.

The revised figures: imports for 2024-25 are now $64.5 billion ($6.1 billion higher than reported); 2023-24 are $59.9 billion ($5.1 billion higher); 2022-23 are $56.9 billion ($1.7 billion higher); 2021-22 are $81.1 billion ($1.1 billion higher); and 2020-21 are $57.3 billion ($919 million higher).

The correction also changes the measured size of the economy: Rs227 billion was added to FY2023-24, taking it to Rs105.5 trillion, and Rs137 billion to FY2024-25, taking it to Rs114.2 trillion, with a marginally positive effect on per capita income.

What it means

Two stories are unfolding at once. The growth slowdown confirms what exporters and manufacturers have been signalling — that stabilisation has come at the cost of industrial momentum, just as rising fuel costs squeeze demand.

The data revision, meanwhile, is a credibility exercise. More accurate trade numbers mean more honest national accounts — and, over time, better policy. But they also mean Pakistan’s import bill, and its trade deficit, were larger than anyone admitted for years.