Pakistan Fertility Rate: Latest Data and Trends
The definitive, data-backed guide: current fertility and birth rates, the 75-year decline, the urban-rural divide, and what the numbers mean for Pakistan’s future.
Last updated: 11 October 2026
TFR 2025 (UN estimate)
TFR 2024-25 (PSLM survey)
TFR at 1976 peak
births per 1,000 (2024)
contraceptive use 2024-25
urban vs rural TFR
Definitions
What the fertility rate measures
Two different numbers describe how many children Pakistanis are having — and they answer different questions.
Total fertility rate (TFR)
The average number of children a woman would have if she lived through her childbearing years at current age-specific rates. TFR answers: how large are families? Pakistan’s TFR is about 3.5 — well above the replacement level of roughly 2.1, but roughly half its 1976 peak.
Crude birth rate (CBR)
The number of live births per 1,000 people per year. CBR answers: how fast is the population growing from births? Pakistan’s CBR is about 27 per 1,000 (2024) — falling for 16 straight years, down from 46.7 in 1960.
Right Now
The latest numbers
Two authoritative sources, slightly different figures — here’s what each says and why.
| Source | Figure | Period |
|---|---|---|
| UN World Population Prospects 2024 | 3.50 children per woman | 2025 (projection) |
| UN World Population Prospects 2024 | 3.55 children per woman | 2024 (projection) |
| PSLM/HIES via Gallup Pakistan | 3.6 children per woman | 2024-25 (survey) |
| PSLM/HIES via Gallup Pakistan | 4.0 children per woman | 2018-19 (survey) |
| World Bank (crude birth rate) | 27.0 births per 1,000 | 2024 |
| UN (crude birth rate) | 27.1 births per 1,000 | Mid-2025 (projection) |
The UN figures are model-based projections; the PSLM figures come from Pakistan’s own household surveys. Both agree on the direction: a slow, steady decline.
History
The 75-year decline
The peak: 6.81
Pakistan’s fertility peaked at nearly 7 children per woman in the mid-1970s — among the highest in the world at the time.
The slow turn
Fertility began falling as contraceptive use rose from under 10% in the early 1990s to 26% using modern methods by the late 2010s.
4.0 → 3.6
National survey data shows TFR falling from 4.0 to 3.6 in six years, with contraceptive prevalence rising from 34% to 38%.
3.5 and falling
The UN estimates 3.50 for 2025 — the eighth straight year of decline, and the lowest fertility rate in Pakistan’s recorded history.
The Divide
The urban-rural divide
National averages hide two very different Pakistans.
| Indicator | Urban | Rural |
|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate | 3.0 | 4.1 |
| Contraceptive prevalence | 44% | 34% |
Source: PSLM/HIES 2024-25 analysis released by Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics. Cities are transitioning far faster than the countryside — urban fertility is approaching replacement level while rural fertility stays above four.
Drivers
Why fertility is falling
Education
Women with more schooling are significantly more likely to use contraception and have fewer children — education is the single strongest predictor of smaller families.
Contraception
Contraceptive prevalence rose from 34% to 38% nationally between the last two survey rounds, with modern-method use far above early-1990s levels.
Urbanisation
City life raises the cost of children and the value of women’s time. Urban fertility (3.0) shows what happens when these forces bite.
Brakes
Why it stays high
The same Gallup Pakistan analysis identified the main barriers to faster decline:
Wanting more children — 36%
The top reason for not using contraception is simply a desire for more children. Large families remain culturally valued, especially in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Spousal opposition & beliefs — 14%
About 8% cite a husband’s opposition and 6% cite religious beliefs — factors concentrated in rural communities where women’s decision-making power is limited.
Unmet need
Roughly one in five married women wants to delay or limit births but lacks safe, suitable contraception — the gap between intentions and access.
Weak service access
Limited reproductive-health services, misinformation and social stigma keep contraceptive prevalence the lowest in South Asia after Afghanistan.
Comparison
Pakistan vs South Asia
Pakistan’s transition is the region’s slowest.
| Country | TFR (latest) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | ~4.4 | Region’s highest — but projected to fall below Pakistan by 2045-50 |
| Pakistan | ~3.5 | Highest in South Asia after Afghanistan; only country where TFR stayed above peers since the mid-1990s |
| India | ~2.0 | At replacement level |
| Bangladesh | ~2.0 | At replacement level |
| Sri Lanka | ~2.0 | At replacement level |
Figures: UN World Population Prospects 2024 and national surveys. If current trends persist, research projects Pakistan will have South Asia’s highest fertility by 2045-2050.
So What
What the numbers mean
Population momentum
Even at 3.5, Pakistan’s young age structure means the population keeps growing fast — nearly 1.5 million young people enter the labour force every year, straining schools, clinics and job creation.
The policy challenge
Analysts point to the same levers: girls’ education, accessible family planning, women’s decision-making power, and tackling misinformation. The UN’s World Fertility Report 2024 urges measures from banning child marriage to guaranteeing quality reproductive-health services.
FAQs
Frequently asked questions
What is the fertility rate of Pakistan?
What is the birth rate of Pakistan?
Is Pakistan’s fertility rate increasing or decreasing?
What is the fertility rate in urban vs rural Pakistan?
Which country has the highest fertility rate in South Asia?
What is the replacement fertility rate?
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Figures from UN World Population Prospects 2024, the World Bank, and PSLM/HIES 2024-25 survey analysis released by Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics. Survey-based and model-based estimates differ slightly; trends are consistent across sources.