Short-term inflation rises to 11.38pc on costly food, PBS data shows
Short-term inflation in Pakistan rose to 11.38 per cent year-on-year in the week ending October 15, driven largely by higher food prices. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics released the official data on Friday.
Of the 51 essential items tracked during the week, prices of 23 commodities (45.10pc) increased, while seven items (13.72pc) became cheaper. Prices of the remaining 21 items (41.18pc) stayed unchanged from the previous week.
Short-term inflation Pakistan stays in double digits
The reading keeps short-term inflation in double digits for several consecutive weeks. The main force behind the persistence has been the steady rise in petroleum prices, which feeds through to the cost of almost everything else.
The Sensitive Price Index, which measures short-term inflation, actually slipped 0.04pc week-on-week, reflecting mixed movement across food and non-food items. But the annual rate remains high, and households continue to feel the pressure at the checkout.
There is a small silver lining in the weekly comparison. Last week’s reading stood at 11.97pc, so the index has eased by more than half a percentage point. The broader inflation picture in Pakistan remains difficult, though consumer-price inflation eased to 10.3pc in September.
Fuel costs keep pushing prices up
The government has been unwilling to ease the petroleum levy and has continued raising petrol and diesel prices on a near-daily basis. The surge in energy costs is doing two things at once: fuelling inflationary pressure and indirectly boosting sales tax collections through higher prices of goods and services.
This is cost-push inflation in its classic form. Rising energy costs lift transport and production expenses first, and food prices follow. Petrol was already near Rs399 a litre earlier this month, and each revision ripples through the supply chain to the kitchen table. A recent survey in Peshawar found more families falling into debt as prices outpace incomes.
The index covers 51 items, with prices collected from 50 markets across 17 cities every week. It tracks the essentials that shape weekly household budgets.
What got costlier this week
The items with the biggest weekly price increases were pulse gram (4.97pc), wheat flour (3.36pc), chicken (3.31pc), eggs (0.99pc), pulse mash (0.98pc) and pulse masoor (0.95pc). Firewood (0.69pc), shirting (0.58pc), cooked daal (0.55pc), diesel (0.47pc), LPG (0.42pc) and tea prepared (0.28pc) also rose.
On the relief side, tomatoes fell sharply by 23.05pc in a single week, followed by onions (4.90pc), bananas (2.59pc), petrol (0.70pc), rice basmati broken (0.65pc), sugar (0.62pc) and gur (0.36pc).
The annual picture
Year-on-year, the increases are starker. Onions lead at 75.19pc, followed by LPG at 68.95pc, electricity for the first quarterly slab at 58.59pc, petrol at 49.60pc, diesel at 43.98pc and wheat flour at 35.13pc. Chicken (20.77pc), chilies powder (15.55pc), mutton (14.90pc), beef (12.27pc), plain bread (9.02pc) and prepared tea (8.36pc) also rose sharply.
A few items are cheaper than a year ago: tomatoes (down 63.65pc), potatoes (39.93pc), sugar (23.20pc), eggs (19.83pc), salt powder (14.86pc), pulse masoor (8.97pc), gur (8.92pc) and pulse moong (7.83pc).
What to watch
The trajectory now depends on two levers: the government’s petroleum pricing decisions and the winter food supply. If fuel prices stabilise and the vegetable supply normalises after the recent volatility, the weekly index could keep easing. If not, the double-digit run will stretch further into the winter, squeezing household budgets harder.
*Source: Dawn*
Frequently asked questions
What is short-term inflation in Pakistan right now?
It stood at 11.38pc year-on-year in the week ending October 15, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, down from 11.97pc the previous week.
What is the Sensitive Price Index?
The SPI tracks weekly changes in the prices of 51 essential commodities and services, collected from 50 markets in 17 cities. It is the standard gauge of short-term inflation.
Why are food prices rising?
Rising fuel and energy costs are pushing up transport and production expenses, which then feed into food prices. This pattern is known as cost-push inflation.
