Pakistan Fertility Rate: Latest Data, Trends and Causes
Pakistan’s fertility rate is falling — slowly. At about 3.5 children per woman, it is the highest in South Asia after Afghanistan, and it shapes everything from classroom sizes to the job market. This page brings together the latest figures, the long-term trend, and the reasons behind the numbers.
Quick answer: Pakistan’s total fertility rate is about 3.5 children per woman (2025, UN) — down from 6.8 in 1976 and falling for eight straight years. National survey data puts it at 3.6 (2024-25), split between 3.0 in cities and 4.1 in rural areas. Contraceptive use has risen from 34% to 38%, but remains the region’s lowest after Afghanistan.
In this guide
The latest figures
Two sources, one story. The UN World Population Prospects 2024 estimates Pakistan’s total fertility rate at 3.50 for 2025 (3.55 in 2024) — the eighth consecutive year of decline. Pakistan’s own PSLM/HIES 2024-25 household surveys, analysed by Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics, put TFR at 3.6, down from 4.0 in 2018-19. The urban rate is 3.0; the rural rate 4.1. Contraceptive prevalence rose from 34% to 38% nationally (44% urban, 34% rural).
The trend: 1976 to today
Pakistan’s fertility peaked at 6.81 children per woman in 1976 — among the world’s highest. The decline since has been gradual: through the 1990s and 2000s as modern contraceptive use climbed from under 10% to the mid-20s, then a steadier fall in the last decade. Since the mid-1990s, only Afghanistan has consistently recorded higher fertility in South Asia — and projections suggest Afghanistan will fall below Pakistan by 2045-2050, leaving Pakistan with the region’s highest rate if trends persist.
What’s driving the decline
Education is the strongest driver: women with more schooling are far more likely to use contraception and have fewer children. Rising contraceptive use (34% to 38% in six years) reflects better access and awareness. Urbanisation raises the cost of children — urban fertility at 3.0 shows the transition already under way in cities. Economic pressure and changing social norms complete the picture.
What holds it back
The Gallup Pakistan analysis found the top barrier is simply wanting more children (36%) — large families remain culturally valued, especially in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Spousal opposition (8%) and religious beliefs (6%) matter more in rural areas, where women’s decision-making power is limited. About one in five married women has an unmet need for family planning — wanting to delay or limit births without safe, suitable contraception. For the full data tables and regional comparison, see our complete guide to Pakistan’s fertility rate, plus Pakistan’s birth rate and the crude birth rate explained.
FAQs
What is the fertility rate of Pakistan in 2025?
About 3.5 children per woman (UN World Population Prospects 2024). National survey data for 2024-25 puts it at 3.6.
Is Pakistan’s fertility rate decreasing?
Yes — eight straight years of decline per the UN, and a fall from 4.0 to 3.6 between the 2018-19 and 2024-25 national surveys.
Why is Pakistan’s fertility rate still high?
Cultural preference for large families (36% cite wanting more children), spousal opposition, religious beliefs, limited contraceptive access in rural areas, and low female education in some regions — with contraceptive prevalence the lowest in South Asia after Afghanistan.
