Climate change is threatening livelihoods and forcing people from their homes across South Asia, but technology and government action could still limit the damage, the UN migration chief said on Friday.
Amy Pope, director general of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), said rising seas, flooding and drought now threaten homes and farmland across the region. She was speaking during a visit to New Delhi.
South Asia climate displacement could reach 40.5 million
In a worst-case scenario, up to 40.5 million people in South Asia may be forced to move by 2050, according to IOM estimates.
“When they can’t produce food, when they can’t feed their livestock, it increases the likelihood of displacement,” Ms Pope said. “The first adaptation is often for people to move.”
She pointed to the Himalayas, where Nepal’s August 26 disaster saw a mountain and glacier collapse trigger deadly flooding. The IOM sent humanitarian aid to help affected communities.
Ms Pope said climate change was also accelerating urbanisation in India. “As people seek shelter from heat, they’re going into urban centres,” she said.
The risks are particularly acute in South Asia, where a vast population and limited resources leave many communities vulnerable.
Funding gap leaves communities exposed
“There’s a lack of urgency globally about the risks that vulnerable communities are facing,” Ms Pope warned, saying funding to help residents prepare for climate change remained inadequate.
“The cost of a humanitarian disaster is in the billions. The cost of investing in some of the resilience measures can be far less,” she said.
Finding money for adaptation programmes is a major obstacle, she added, with governments often struggling to navigate the systems available to fund climate adaptation.
What Pakistan faces
Pakistan sits squarely inside the danger zone Ms Pope described. The 2022 super-floods displaced around 33 million people, one of the largest climate displacements in the country’s history, and recovery in Sindh and Balochistan is still incomplete.
The pattern has continued. Sindh recorded a sharp monsoon rainfall deficit this year, while Punjab’s disaster agency reported dozens dead and hundreds injured in monsoon incidents. Lahore’s air quality has deteriorated under a changing climate, and glacial valleys in Chitral face growing meltwater threats.
These pressures match the IOM’s warning: when crops fail and livestock die, families move first to nearby towns, then to cities, and finally across borders.
AI and early warnings offer hope
Better data and artificial intelligence could help governments identify communities at risk before disaster strikes, Ms Pope said.
“With the advancements in AI forecasting, you can now better anticipate those communities that are at high risk of displacement,” she said. By combining weather forecasts with information about local livelihoods, authorities can identify which communities most need help.
“If you know a community is at risk, we don’t need to wait until they are displaced to respond,” she said.
Measures could include improving farming methods, training people for other jobs and, where necessary, relocating communities repeatedly hit by floods or drought.
Ms Pope said India’s investments in early-warning systems, disaster response and technology offered grounds for optimism. But no government can meet the scale of the challenge alone, she added.
International migration can also help people earn a living while filling labour shortages abroad, she said. However, she warned that growing demand for workers must be matched by safe, legal routes to employment.
Original reporting: Dawn
Frequently asked questions
How many people could climate change displace in South Asia?
The IOM warns that in a worst-case scenario, up to 40.5 million people in South Asia may be forced to move by 2050 because of rising seas, flooding and drought.
Why is South Asia especially vulnerable?
A vast population, limited resources, dependence on farming and exposure to floods, droughts, heatwaves and glacial melt leave many communities with few options when disasters strike.
What can reduce climate displacement?
The IOM chief recommends better early-warning systems, AI-based forecasting, improved farming methods, job training for affected workers, planned relocation of repeatedly flooded communities, and safe legal routes for international migration.
