KARACHI: Sindh faced a 50.8 per cent shortfall in monsoon rainfall this year, the sharpest decline of any region in the country, according to data released by the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Pakistan as a whole recorded a 19.3 per cent deficit during the July 1 to September 30 monsoon season. The country received an average of 120.5mm of rain against the long-term normal of 149.2mm for the 1991-2020 period.
Sindh received only 71.1mm of rain against its normal average of 144.3mm. Balochistan also recorded a major deficit of 33.7 per cent, receiving 39.1mm against its normal average of 58.9mm.
How other regions fared
The northern regions and upper provinces also received below-average rainfall. Azad Jammu and Kashmir recorded an 18.4 per cent deficit, receiving 302.8mm against its normal average of 371.3mm. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa received 226.7mm, a 16.3 per cent shortfall from its normal average of 270.9mm.
Punjab remained relatively stable, receiving 241.4mm of rainfall, only 3.8 per cent below its normal average of 251.0mm. Gilgit-Baltistan was the only region to receive above-normal rainfall, recording 54.1mm against its normal average of 51.8mm, a positive deviation of 4.6 per cent.
Why the monsoon underperformed
Weather experts cited four major reasons for the deficit. First, El Nino conditions played a central role. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific affected monsoon systems over South Asia and contributed to below-normal rainfall in southern and central areas, including Sindh and Balochistan.
Second, a weak Indian Ocean Dipole and its delayed development over Pakistan limited its positive impact during the peak monsoon period. Third, long-term climate change has increased atmospheric variation and made monsoon systems shift irregularly. Warmer temperatures can hold more moisture and trigger local heavy rains, but the overall seasonal distribution has become uneven.
Finally, regional temperature differences shaped the outcome. Rising temperatures in northern high-altitude areas, particularly Gilgit-Baltistan, increased local convection along with snow and glacier melt. That lifted rainfall in the north while the southern plains stayed dry.
Call for tree plantation
Weather experts advised policymakers to increase tree plantation, particularly in northern areas, to help reduce the impacts of climate change on the country’s rainfall patterns.
How far below normal was Sindh’s monsoon rainfall?
Sindh received 71.1mm against a normal average of 144.3mm, a shortfall of 50.8 per cent, the worst of any region.
Which region received above-normal rainfall?
Gilgit-Baltistan was the only region above normal, recording 54.1mm against its 51.8mm average, a positive deviation of 4.6 per cent.
What caused the weak 2026 monsoon?
Experts blamed El Nino conditions, a weak Indian Ocean Dipole, long-term climate change and rising northern temperatures that shifted rainfall patterns.
