The United Nations has issued an El Nino 2026 warning, saying the phenomenon gripping the planet is heading off the charts and urging countries to act before the worst arrives.
El Nino is set to peak in December, but the human cost of its extreme temperatures, floods and droughts will stretch into 2027 and beyond, with the UN calling for preventive measures to shield the millions most exposed.
“The current El Nino event could be unprecedented in strength: literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades,” said Celeste Saulo, head of the UN’s weather and climate agency, at a joint press conference in Geneva with UN aid chief Tom Fletcher. The two issued a call for “urgent and coordinated anticipatory action” to protect the most vulnerable communities.
“We cannot stop El Nino, but we can prevent many of its worst human consequences,” Saulo said.
A ‘wrecking ball’ for four continents
Fletcher described El Nino as a “wrecking ball” that would bring havoc to Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific. He warned that the impact “will be felt for months and potentially years to come, because it’s this overlaying of crisis on crisis and crisis”, pointing to widespread conflict and displacement, soaring fuel, fertiliser and food prices, and deep aid cuts. “The risk is you have tens of millions of people pushed into humanitarian need,” he said, warning that 50 million people could face increased hunger. The next two weeks, he added, are “the critical window to act”.
Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya need supplies ahead of heavy rains. Southern Africa needs seeds and livestock support, Central America needs livelihood assistance, while Asia and the Pacific must prepare for droughts, floods and cyclones, Dawn reported.
Fletcher warned the damage would not stay confined to frontline countries. “It will create economic shocks for the global economy and drive further conflict, displacement, migration,” he said. He called on governments, development banks and international financial institutions to move money before the damage is done, and said he had released $50 million to help 11 countries on the frontline, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan.
Record heat in the Pacific
El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, shifting winds, pressure and rainfall patterns worldwide. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months, oscillating with its cooler opposite, La Nina.
The WMO’s seasonal update forecast that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, the epicentre of El Nino, may rise to 3.8C above average during November to January. That would be the highest three-month reading since observations began, eclipsing the previous record of 2.6C set in 2015-16.
“This will have far-reaching consequences for weather patterns across the world,” Saulo said. While El Nino usually peaks between November and February, the temperature spike typically comes later. The last El Nino helped make 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.
What the El Nino 2026 warning means for the months ahead
The warning marks a sharp escalation from earlier assessments. Feature Pakistan reported previously that this El Nino was intensifying toward a December peak; the UN now says it may be the strongest event in four decades of modern monitoring.
For Pakistan, the stakes are familiar. The country has just come through a monsoon season that left Sindh with a sharp rainfall deficit, and its cities are already coping with heat and pollution flagged over Lahore by a Copernicus report. El Nino years have historically disrupted South Asia’s rainfall patterns, which makes the UN’s call for anticipatory action directly relevant to the region’s disaster planners.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern that warms surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It shifts global wind, pressure and rainfall patterns, usually lasts nine to 12 months, and is followed by its cooler opposite, La Nina.
Why is the 2026 El Nino called ‘off the charts’?
The WMO says Pacific sea surface temperatures may rise 3.8C above average from November to January, beating the 2.6C record set in 2015-16. The UN’s climate chief said the event could be unprecedented in strength in four decades of monitoring.
How many people are at risk?
UN aid chief Tom Fletcher warned that 50 million people could face increased hunger, with tens of millions more pushed into humanitarian need across Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Pacific.
What is the UN doing about it?
Fletcher said he had released $50 million to help 11 countries on the frontline, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan, and urged development banks and governments to release funds before the damage is done.
