El Niño will intensify, then peak in December, the UN says
This year’s El Niño will keep strengthening before peaking in December and has a near-100 per cent chance of lasting through February 2027, the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday. The United Nations weather agency warned it could become one of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950, with sea-surface temperatures set to break records.
“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, releasing the agency’s Global Seasonal Climate Update. The bulletin says the phenomenon will bring above-average temperatures to much of the world and shift rainfall patterns, raising the risk of drought and floods in different regions.
How strong is this El Niño?
The numbers are striking. The widely used Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, jumped from an average of 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal in June to 2.5 degrees above normal in August.
For October to December, the seasonal average is forecast to reach about 3.7 degrees above normal, peaking around December. That would be the highest since observations began, far above the previous record of 2.6 degrees set between November 2015 and January 2016.
“The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release,” Saulo said.
What it means for weather worldwide
El Niño is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, and it tends to push global temperatures higher while disrupting rainfall. This year’s event arrives on top of a planet already running hot: August tied with July 2023 as the hottest month on record, and sea-surface temperatures set an all-time high.
The WMO expects wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of Central Asia, the Greater Horn of Africa and coastal East Asia, and drier-than-average conditions over the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean and northwestern South America.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate pattern that strongly influences rainfall around the Indian Ocean, is expected to peak in October and then decline.
The coming months
The forecast is based on a consensus among 13 leading national and international meteorological centres. While every El Niño is different, this one is shaping up as exceptional: the ocean has never been this warm, and the records are being broken months before the expected December peak.
For the Indian subcontinent, including Pakistan, the seasonal outlook points to above-normal temperatures and drier-than-average conditions in the October to December window.
FAQ
When will this El Niño peak?
Around December 2026, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s October update.
How strong could this El Niño be?
The WMO says it could be one of the strongest since at least 1950. The Niño 3.4 temperature anomaly is forecast to reach about 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal, well beyond the previous record of 2.6 degrees.
How long will it last?
There is a near-100 per cent chance it will persist through February 2027, the WMO said.
