Pak economy news — the markets desk: SBP policy rate, PSX, T-bills, the rupee and the IMF programme. Updated October 2026.
Quick answer: Pak economy markets (Oct 2026): SBP rate 11.5% (held 14 Sep; October decision looms), KSE-100 at 167,089, T-bill yields up to 75bps higher (12M at 12.49%), 6M KIBOR 12.41%, rupee Rs277, reserves $21.45bn after September’s $3bn Eurobond. The IMF programme anchors it all.
SBP & Rates: The October Decision
The State Bank’s MPC held the policy rate at 11.50% on 14 September 2026, choosing inflation control over growth stimulus. But the market disagrees with “hold”: recent T-bill auctions saw cut-offs climb up to 75 basis points — 1M at 11.68%, 3M at 11.99%, 6M at 12.45%, 12M at 12.49% (30 September) — and 6-month KIBOR sits at 12.41%, nearly a point above the policy rate. When market rates run ahead of the policy rate, traders are pricing a hike. The October MPC is therefore the month’s key event: hold and disappoint the market, or hike and squeeze industry further. Manufacturers are already warning that 14–16 US cents/unit energy costs plus double-digit borrowing are eroding competitiveness against Bangladesh.
PSX & Bonds
The KSE-100 closed at 167,089 on 9 October — near historic highs, on average daily volumes around 427 million shares. Equities are riding the stabilisation trade: steady rupee, IMF backing, positive (if modest) growth. The bond market is more cautious: 10-year PIBs yielded 12.85% at the 7 October auction — pricing high rates for longer. Gold in Karachi hit Rs378,031 per 10 grams (9 Oct), tracking the global surge past $4,194/oz. The daily-numbers desk: Pakistan economy news today.
FX & Reserves: The Buffer Holds
Rs277.00 interbank (9 Oct) — the rupee’s steadiness is the quiet achievement of 2026. Behind it: SBP reserves of $21.45bn (2 Oct; $26.80bn including banks), rebuilt by September’s $3 billion Eurobond — Pakistan’s return to international capital markets. The current account deficit fell 36% to $543m in July–August as remittances jumped 14.7% to $7.29bn. Watch the import bill (+11.4% to $11.6bn): if it keeps outrunning exports (+4%), the buffer gets tested.
The IMF Anchor
Everything above runs through the IMF programme: the tight SBP stance, the energy tariff adjustments feeding inflation, the FBR’s revenue targets, and the creditor confidence behind the Eurobond. The programme’s bargain is stabilisation first, growth later — visible in every number on this page: 3.7% GDP growth (positive but modest), 10.26% inflation (falling but high), 11.5% rates (necessary but painful). The complete guide: Pakistan economy news: the complete guide.
For investors: the stabilisation trade — long equities, long the Eurobond story — has worked since 2023. The risk now is policy error in either direction: hiking into a fragile industrial recovery, or holding while inflation re-accelerates. The October MPC will show which risk the SBP fears more. For savers: 12%+ T-bill yields still beat inflation — but only just, and only before tax.
Markets: FAQs
Will the SBP raise rates in October?
Markets are pricing it in — T-bill yields up 75bps, KIBOR at 12.41% vs the 11.5% policy rate. The MPC decision is expected later in October.
How is the PSX performing?
KSE-100 at 167,089 (9 Oct 2026) — near historic highs.
What is the rupee rate?
Rs277.00 interbank; Rs278.69 open market (9 Oct 2026).
What are Pakistan’s forex reserves?
$21.45bn with the SBP; $26.80bn total (2 Oct 2026).
