The Pakistan Meteorological Department has issued its PMD rain forecast for October 10 to 15, warning of rain, thunderstorms, strong winds and isolated hailstorms across the upper and central parts of the country. A westerly weather system enters the upper regions on Saturday and persists for nearly a week, with occasional gaps.
The PMD rain forecast covers Islamabad, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. The Met Office warns that strong winds and hailstorms could damage weak structures, power infrastructure and standing crops in the plains of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
PMD rain forecast: where and when the rain is expected
The heaviest and most repeated spells target the Potohar plateau and upper Punjab. Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Murree, the Galliyat region, Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, Sialkot and Sargodha are likely to receive rain, windstorms and thunderstorms with isolated hail on October 10 and 11, and again on October 13 and 14.
Central and southern Punjab get shorter spells. Multan, Layyah, Dera Ghazi Khan, Bahawalpur, Sahiwal and Okara may see similar conditions on October 10, 11 and 13.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa faces the longest unsettled spell. Rain, strong winds, thunderstorms and isolated hail are forecast for Peshawar, Swat, Dir, Chitral, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Kohat, Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan from October 10 to 15. The PMD expects intermittent rain in Azad Jammu and Kashmir — including Muzaffarabad, Neelum Valley, Mirpur and Kotli — and in Gilgit-Baltistan, including Gilgit, Skardu and Hunza, during the same period.
In Balochistan, rain is expected in Zhob, Barkhan and Musakhel on October 10 and 11. Most of Sindh will stay hot and dry.
Relief from heat, risk to crops and infrastructure
The Met Office expects daytime temperatures to drop by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in the affected areas, bringing the first real relief from the recent hot spell. The changing weather also carries risks. Strong winds and hailstorms can damage weak structures, electricity poles, billboards and other vulnerable infrastructure. Standing crops in the plains of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may suffer damage, particularly where hail hits.
The advisory follows a difficult weather year for the country. Earlier this season, Sindh faced a monsoon rainfall deficit, while in a separate episode heavy rain and hail tripped 83 power feeders across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, showing how quickly storms can knock out electricity networks. Lahore’s air quality problems also add a public-health dimension to every weather shift — the province has asked schools to promote carpooling as the AQI nears 200. Readers tracking power supply should also note that night-time outages in Lahore are already spiking, so storm-related feeder trips could add to the strain.
Farmers in the affected districts are advised to secure harvested produce and avoid field work during thunderstorm warnings. The PMD will update its advisory as the westerly wave develops. Detailed district-wise forecasts are carried by WE News and Bloom Pakistan.
Frequently asked questions
Which areas will get rain from October 10 to 15?
Islamabad, upper and central Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan are forecast to receive rain, thunderstorms and isolated hailstorms. Parts of Balochistan get brief rain, while Sindh stays mostly dry.
Will there be hailstorms?
Yes. The PMD forecasts isolated hailstorms in upper and central Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and parts of Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan during the October 10 to 15 spell.
How much will temperatures drop?
The Met Office expects temperatures to fall by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in the affected areas, easing the recent hot and dry conditions.
Is there a risk to crops and power supply?
Yes. The PMD warns that strong winds, thunderstorms and hailstorms could damage standing crops in the plains of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as well as weak structures, electricity poles and billboards.
