Pakistan Diabetes Cases May Hit 70 Million by 2050
Pakistan diabetes cases could more than double to 70.2 million adults by 2050 unless effective action slows the growing burden, specialists at the Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH) warned.
Pakistan is already among the countries most affected by diabetes, with an estimated 34.5 million adults living with the condition. Of these, 9.3 million, or 26.9 per cent, remain undiagnosed.
The warning came at a media roundtable organised by AKUH to discuss the rising burden of the disease and the importance of spotting risk factors early. Specialists in endocrinology, vascular surgery and clinical nutrition set out how screening, treatment and lasting lifestyle changes can help.
Pakistan diabetes: the risk reaches younger adults
The experts stressed that diabetes affects more than blood sugar levels. Over time, it can damage blood vessels and nerves, raising the risk of complications in the heart, kidneys, eyes and limbs.
Younger adults also face risks, especially those with a family history of diabetes, excess weight around the abdomen or sedentary lifestyles. An apparently healthy body weight does not mean someone is free from risk.
Dr Asma Ahmed, Consultant Endocrinologist at AKUH, said type 2 diabetes does not affect older adults alone. She urged younger people with a family history or other risk factors to seek screening before symptoms appear. For those already diagnosed, she advised taking medication as prescribed and attending regular follow-up appointments, along with sustainable lifestyle changes.
Early action can reverse prediabetes
AKUH’s community-based Pakistan Diabetes Prevention Trial showed the value of early intervention. After one year, 61 per cent of participants with prediabetes in the lifestyle intervention group had returned to normal blood sugar levels, through simple lifestyle changes tailored to their cultural context.
The finding matters because prediabetes is the stage before type 2 diabetes develops, and catching it early gives people a real chance to avoid the condition altogether. The trial shows that the changes needed are practical ones, not extreme diets or punishing routines, and that they work in a Pakistani setting.
Foot checks can prevent limb loss
Dr Fareed Ahmed Shaikh, Assistant Professor and Section Head of Vascular Surgery at AKUH, explained how diabetes affects circulation and nerve function, particularly in the legs and feet. Reduced sensation can allow a small cut to go unnoticed, and poor blood circulation can then turn it into a serious wound.
Left untreated, such wounds may eventually lead to limb loss. Regular foot checks and timely medical assessment can catch problems early and lower the risk of severe complications. For the millions of Pakistanis who do not know they have diabetes, that check may be the first sign that something is wrong.
Food and coordinated care
Farah Syed, Senior Dietitian at AKUH, said managing diabetes does not require people to abandon their favourite foods or follow a restrictive diet. Balanced choices and portion control matter more. More vegetables, pulses and whole grains, and fewer sugary drinks, can support better blood sugar management. Dietary changes must stay practical enough for people to sustain over time.
The specialists said effective care needs more than blood sugar monitoring. They recommended coordinated care that combines medical treatment, vascular and foot assessments, and personalised nutritional guidance, so patients can manage the condition, cut the risk of complications and keep a better quality of life.
A burden Pakistan has reported before
The warning adds to a picture Feature Pakistan has reported before. A high-fibre diet helped in a blood sugar trial, and insulin supplies have faced shortages. Medicine pricing and tracking remain under reform, while Punjab is spending Rs5 billion on stroke care, a service that matters for diabetes patients too, since the disease damages blood vessels.
With more than a quarter of cases undiagnosed, screening is the first step. The AKUH specialists’ message was simple: test early, act early, and keep the changes small enough to last.
Frequently asked questions
How many people in Pakistan have diabetes?
An estimated 34.5 million adults, with 9.3 million of them, or 26.9 per cent, undiagnosed.
How many diabetes cases are expected by 2050?
Pakistan could have 70.2 million adults with diabetes by 2050 unless action slows the burden.
Can prediabetes be reversed?
In AKUH’s prevention trial, 61 per cent of participants with prediabetes returned to normal blood sugar within a year through lifestyle changes.
Why are foot checks important for diabetes patients?
Reduced sensation and poor circulation can turn a small unnoticed cut into a serious wound, and regular checks can prevent severe complications including limb loss.
