Ex-Russian PM Kasyanov Says Putin Knows Ukraine War Was a Mistake

Mikhail Kasyanov, Russia’s prime minister from 2000 to 2004, believes Vladimir Putin understands that invading Ukraine was a mistake but cannot bring himself to admit it. In an interview with AFP in Paris on Saturday, Kasyanov said his former boss would persist with the war rather than negotiate an end to it, despite growing economic trouble and unease among ordinary Russians and the elite.

“He made a mistake that he cannot bring himself to admit,” Kasyanov, 68, said. “He believed the reports from his security services that Ukraine was weak.”

Kasyanov said he was not convinced the war would end next year. He argued that Putin had been buoyed by high oil prices resulting from the US-Iran conflict and by disagreements between the United States and Europe over how to handle the Kremlin.

“Putin is, of course, rubbing his hands with glee,” Kasyanov said. “He clearly believes he can continue the war without making any concessions. And he is convinced that he is winning a war of attrition against Ukraine.”

A brutal winter ahead for Ukraine

Kasyanov warned that the coming winter could be particularly brutal for Ukraine. He urged Western countries to apply “psychological pressure on the Kremlin” by closing ranks and to urgently supply Kyiv with Patriot missile interceptors to defend its skies against intensifying Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure.

Putin, a former KGB officer who turns 74 on Wednesday, has insisted that millions of Russians support the war. Last month his ruling party won a record supermajority in elections that critics described as tightly controlled, with Putin presenting the result as public backing for the hostilities.

Fear in the Russian ruling class

Kasyanov, who left Russia in 2022 and lives in exile in Riga, said he remained in contact with some members of Russia’s ruling elite. Moscow designated him a “foreign agent” in 2023, a label reminiscent of the Soviet-era “enemy of the people.”

“Fear reigns there, I am talking about the ruling class. Everyone wants the war to end. An overwhelming majority does,” he said.

Among ordinary Russians, he saw “no grounds for a revolt,” despite mounting casualties and rising food prices. “Russians have lived with high inflation for the past 30 years,” he said. “They have grown accustomed to putting up with it.”

Kasyanov calls Putin a ‘highly calculating cynic’

Speaking at a Paris conference of anti-Putin exiles, Kasyanov said Russia had become “practically totalitarian” in recent years, with “a sense of fatalism, hostility toward one another, and serious tension in society.”

After Putin said on Thursday that Russia would consider using “all types of weapons” if its Kaliningrad exclave were attacked, Kasyanov said the West should not be intimidated by the sabre-rattling.

“The West’s and Europeans’ biggest mistake is that they are too afraid of Putin. He is not as strong as he appears,” he told a packed audience. “Putin fears the nuclear button more than many Europeans do.”

Kasyanov suggested that Putin wanted foreigners to believe “he is a psychopath” when in reality he was simply a “highly calculating cynic” who was “raising the stakes in the game.”

He added, however, that he did not believe Putin was preparing for open war with Europe. “What Putin wants is respect. He wants to force all of Europe to give it to him.”

FAQs

Who is Mikhail Kasyanov?

He was Russia’s prime minister from 2000 to 2004 under Vladimir Putin. After being dismissed, he joined the opposition and became one of the Kremlin’s most vocal critics. He left Russia in 2022 and lives in exile in Riga.

What did Kasyanov say about Putin and Ukraine?

He told AFP that Putin knows the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was a mistake but cannot admit it, and that Putin believes he is winning a war of attrition and will not negotiate.

Why does Kasyanov think Putin won’t negotiate?

He pointed to high oil prices from the US-Iran conflict and US-Europe disagreements over Russia policy, which he said had emboldened Putin to continue without concessions.

What did he urge the West to do?

Kasyanov called on Western countries to close ranks, apply “psychological pressure on the Kremlin,” and urgently send Patriot interceptors to protect Ukraine’s skies through the winter.