An intensifying El Nino set an all-time temperature high in a key Pacific zone in September and could help make 2026 the hottest year ever recorded. Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service issued its El Nino 2026 hottest year warning on Monday, October 12.
The EU climate monitor said sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region, the tell-tale El Nino monitoring zone of the Pacific, reached an all-time high of 29.70°C last month. That exceeded the peak temperatures of the previously strong El Nino events of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
Global average sea surface temperatures also hit a record 21.05°C for September, topping the previous high of 20.92°C set in the same month in 2023. Overall, the world experienced its second-hottest September on record, with surface air temperatures averaging 16.27°C, the service said.
September ran 1.63°C hotter than the pre-industrial average, marking the second straight month above the 1.5°C threshold. Scientists stress that the Paris Agreement’s long-term limit concerns multi-decadal warming rather than single months.
El Nino 2026 hottest year fears rest on a very exceptional event
This year’s El Nino emerged in June and is building toward its peak later this year. Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo called the event very exceptional but said it was too early to say whether it was the strongest ever observed.
He warned that the world was in a new run of months above 1.5°C, and that with a strong El Nino still intensifying, it was likely to last into 2027. Crossing the Paris Agreement’s long-term limit, he said, was only a matter of time, though how far temperatures overshoot remained in human hands.
Not all forecasters use the same scale to interpret El Nino. Japan’s weather agency said conditions had reached their strongest intensity on record. Copernicus, which adopted a new index accounting for background ocean warming, suggested the current event had not yet surpassed past peaks on that adjusted measure.
The World Meteorological Organisation said sea temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific were expected to reach record levels from October to December, with an almost 100 per cent chance that El Nino persists to February 2027. The agency warned the event could be among the strongest since at least 1950.
What it means for Pakistan
El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. For Pakistan, the risks are direct: disrupted monsoon patterns, droughts in some regions, floods in others, and longer, deadlier heatwaves.
Pakistan already ranks among the countries worst hit by climate change, and the data from this year backs that up. The Pakistan Meteorological Department recorded a 50.8 per cent monsoon rainfall deficit in Sindh in 2026, while the country has endured repeated flood and heatwave cycles in recent years.
An exceptionally strong El Nino would amplify those pressures. Agriculture, which employs a large share of Pakistan’s workforce and feeds its cities, depends on predictable monsoon timing. Water supplies, already stretched, would face further strain if heatwaves and erratic rainfall continue into 2027.
Frequently asked questions
Could 2026 really be the hottest year on record?
Copernicus says it is possible. The event is very exceptional and still intensifying toward its peak, but the service says it is too early to declare it the strongest El Nino ever observed.
How hot was September 2026?
The global average sea surface temperature hit a record 21.05°C for September, and surface air averaged 16.27°C, making it the second-hottest September observed. It ran 1.63°C above the pre-industrial average.
How does El Nino affect Pakistan?
El Nino shifts global wind, pressure and rainfall patterns. In Pakistan that can mean disrupted monsoons, droughts, floods and prolonged heatwaves, all of which threaten agriculture and water supplies.
