COP31 Climate Science Fight Intensifies
The European Union has vowed to fight for science at the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkiye, after accusing some countries of trying to undermine the world’s leading authority on global warming. The COP31 climate science row centres on when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change should publish its next major reports.
The dispute over the timing of those reports is spilling into the talks, threatening to complicate negotiations towards a final deal.
The COP31 climate science dispute
Dozens of countries in Europe, Africa and the Pacific want the next IPCC reports ready to inform a crucial stocktake of carbon-cutting efforts at the 2028 summit. But a smaller group of countries, including Saudi Arabia, China and India, is pushing for the IPCC’s seventh assessment report to be delayed until 2029.
The IPCC suspended its last meeting after failing to break the impasse and hopes for a resolution at its next session in December. But pressure is growing to settle the standoff in Turkiye by inserting the issue in the final COP31 decision.
What the EU and the UN chief said
“We will fight for this outcome to be there,” senior EU climate official Diana Acconcia told reporters, cautioning that it would “not be so easy” to bridge the gulf on the issue.
“There are some parties that are trying to undermine what science is telling us because they don’t want to do what it takes to address climate change,” Acconcia said. “It is as simple as that,” she added, lamenting the “polarised” nature of the debate.
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres praised the “remarkable” work of the IPCC and said he hoped for its next report to be published “ideally before the next stocktake”.
Why the timing matters
The IPCC publishes a series of reports every seven years, providing the definitive scientific assessment of climate change and informing global policy responses to the crisis. Climate scientist Pierre Friedlingstein, from the University of Exeter and an author of previous IPCC assessments, said it was “always best for policy decisions to be based on the most up-to-date science”.
“Updated figures are more appropriate than figures that are seven years old,” he said in Antalya. “Presenting new evidence can help drive political decisions forward. That said, it is clear that this does not suit certain countries. They would prefer to stay where we were before.”
Some countries fear updated findings could expose the gap between climate action and what is needed to limit warming at the 2028 global stocktake, several negotiators in Antalya said.
IPCC chairman Jim Skea told delegates it was “no secret that IPCC faces operational challenges and reputational risks from the current impasse on the timeline”, and urged them to “use your influence here to prepare for a successful outcome” at the December meeting. He reminded them that IPCC scientists volunteer their time.
Observers are not optimistic of a resolution at COP31, where decisions need consensus among nearly 200 nations. But there is a push to recognise the “central role” of IPCC science in any final deal.
What it means for Pakistan
Pakistan has a direct stake in the outcome. The country is among those most exposed to climate change, and the 2028 stocktake will judge whether the world’s efforts match the scale of the threat, including the finance and support available for adaptation.
A survey published this week found that many Pakistanis see climate change as a lost cause, even as smog chokes the country’s cities and artificial rain trials continue in Lahore. Pakistani governments are also acting at home: Sindh has decided to shift government vehicles to electric models.
The dispute will decide whether governments face the latest evidence before the 2028 stocktake, or judge themselves on figures seven years old.
Frequently asked questions
What is the dispute at COP31?
The dispute is over when the IPCC should publish its seventh assessment report. Dozens of countries want it ready for the 2028 stocktake; Saudi Arabia, China, India and others want it delayed until 2029.
What is the IPCC’s seventh assessment report?
It is the next set of reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading authority on global warming, which publishes its assessments every seven years.
Which countries want the report delayed?
Saudi Arabia, China and India are pushing for the seventh assessment report to be delayed until 2029.
When will the IPCC meet next?
The IPCC hopes to resolve the impasse at its next session in December, after its last meeting was suspended without agreement.
Why does the timing matter for the 2028 stocktake?
The 2028 summit will take stock of global carbon-cutting efforts, and countries that want the report on time say it should use the latest science, not figures that are seven years old.
