El Nino Cost Could Double to $73 Billion, UNDP Chief Warns
Act now against El Nino damage, or pay double later. That was the warning from the head of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) on Friday at COP31 in Turkiye. The El Nino cost is stark: $36 billion if countries act now, and $73 billion if they do not.
“The needs to hedge the impact of El Nino are $36 billion if you do it now,” UNDP chief Alexander De Croo said in an interview in Antalya. “If you don’t do it, the cost will be $73bn. So the cost would be two times as high.”
“Not acting is the most expensive climate policy that you could have,” he warned, urging major players such as the International Monetary Fund to help vulnerable developing nations limit the damage.
What El Nino does
El Nino heats Pacific Ocean waters every two to seven years, disrupting wind patterns and rainfall. This cycle has been exceptionally strong, and it has already battered economies across the globe.
A UN report this week cited African Development Bank estimates of $10bn to $20bn in African damage. The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean projected GDP losses of at least 2 per cent over three years, pushing 4.8 million into poverty.
De Croo pressed for immediate adaptation spending and reforms that lower the cost of capital across 47 partner nations. Developing countries want more support from wealthier nations historically responsible for warming, though rich governments face heavy debt and war costs.
He said vulnerable nations have had no time to recover from one crisis before the next: Covid-19, the war in Ukraine, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, “and now El Nino, and now the cost of financing”.
What the El Nino cost means for Pakistan
Pakistan has a direct stake: among the most exposed to climate change, it has already paid a heavy price for weather extremes.
The floods of 2022 affected 33 million people and killed more than 1,700. A joint assessment put damage and losses at more than $30 billion, with recovery needs of $16.3 billion.
Pakistan’s share is tiny: about 0.5 per cent of global emissions in 2024, and about 0.31 per cent of cumulative emissions since 1751. Yet it faces some of the worst effects: floods, heatwaves and shifting monsoon rains.
The 2025 monsoon brought the point home again: the prime minister said the nationwide death toll had passed 700. For Pakistan, the warning is not abstract: it is about whether adaptation money arrives before the next disaster.
That is why Pakistan has pushed for climate finance. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has made the case for vulnerable countries, and Pakistan has pressed for solar energy support at the summit. At home, a survey found many Pakistanis see climate change as a lost cause, even as smog chokes cities and Sindh shifts government vehicles to electric models.
The fight over climate science at COP31 adds to the pressure, as the summit must still agree how fast the leading climate science body should publish its next reports.
Who will host the next climate summit
China has decided against hosting the UN’s 2028 climate talks, sources said on Friday, speaking anonymously at COP31.
Beijing’s decision leaves the door open for another Asia-Pacific nation to organise COP33, as it is the region’s turn. India withdrew its offer in April; South Korea has expressed interest.
Asked about the decision, first reported by The Guardian, a Chinese spokesperson said he was unaware of it, adding China remains committed to “promoting the global green and low-carbon transition”.
Frequently asked questions
What did the UNDP chief warn about El Nino?
Alexander De Croo warned that acting now would cost $36 billion, but delay would push the bill to $73 billion. He called inaction “the most expensive climate policy” a country could follow.
What is El Nino?
El Nino heats Pacific Ocean waters every two to seven years. It disrupts wind patterns and rainfall, bringing drought to some regions and floods to others.
Why does the warning matter for Pakistan?
Pakistan is among the countries most exposed to climate change. The 2022 floods affected 33 million people and caused more than $30 billion in damage and losses, though Pakistan produces about 0.5 per cent of global emissions.
Which countries want more climate finance?
Developing countries want more support from wealthier nations historically responsible for warming. The UNDP chief urged the IMF and rich nations to help vulnerable countries.
Who will host the COP33 climate summit in 2028?
China has decided against hosting it, sources said at COP31. It is the Asia-Pacific region’s turn, India withdrew its offer in April, and South Korea has expressed interest.
