Rabi Water Shortfall Hits Punjab, Sindh Wheat
Punjab and Sindh face a projected 22 per cent irrigation water shortfall during the Rabi season, putting wheat and other winter crops at risk as sowing moves ahead. The Rabi water shortfall comes at a time when the country’s three main reservoirs hold only 6.167 million acre-feet of usable water between them.
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has approved the 22 per cent shortage for the Rabi season, which runs from October 1, 2026, to March 31, 2027. The Express Tribune reported the IRSA figures on Friday. The authority based the figure on expected river inflows of 21.268 million acre-feet against planned provincial withdrawals of 29.183 million acre-feet.
Rabi water shortfall: what IRSA approved
IRSA sets the seasonal water shares for the provinces. For this Rabi season, it expects far less water to flow into the river system than the provinces plan to draw. The gap leaves farmers in Punjab and Sindh, the two provinces that grow most of the country’s wheat, facing tight supplies through the winter.
The shortage could hit wheat, the main Rabi crop, along with tobacco, barley, mustard, gram, lentils, potatoes, onions and tomatoes. Water at the right stage of growth matters most for wheat. A shortfall during those stages can slow plant growth and cut yields.
Farmers who cannot get canal water on time will lean more on groundwater. That pushes up pumping costs, since diesel and electricity for tube wells are already dear. Areas that rely heavily on canal water will feel the squeeze first.
Reservoir levels at Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma
The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) put combined usable storage in the Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma reservoirs at 6.167 million acre-feet. Outflows at the big dams are running well ahead of inflows, which drains storage day by day.
| Reservoir | Water level | Storage | Inflow | Outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarbela | 1,488.93 feet | 2.456 million acre-feet | 25,600 cusecs | 45,000 cusecs |
| Mangla | 1,186.90 feet | 3.462 million acre-feet | 3,800 cusecs | 33,000 cusecs |
| Chashma | 647.80 feet | 249,000 acre-feet | 113,200 cusecs | 54,000 cusecs |
At Head Marala on the Chenab, inflow stood at 7,400 cusecs against an outflow of 2,000 cusecs. On the Kabul at Nowshera, inflow and outflow were both 8,200 cusecs. WAPDA said the Indus, Kabul and Jhelum figures were 24-hour averages, while the Head Marala readings were taken at 6am.
The pattern is clear. Tarbela is releasing 45,000 cusecs while only 25,600 cusecs flow in. Mangla is releasing 33,000 cusecs against an inflow of just 3,800 cusecs. Storage will keep falling unless winter rain and snowmelt lift inflows.
What it means for wheat and winter crops
Wheat sowing is under way across Punjab and Sindh, so the timing of the shortfall matters. The crop needs water at sowing, tillering and grain filling. Miss the window and the yield drops, even if water arrives later.
The pressure does not stop at the farm gate. Wheat sets the price of flour, the staple food for most households. A weak harvest would push up flour prices and add to food inflation, which has only just started to ease. Flour millers have already pressed for a market-driven wheat policy, and a short crop would sharpen that debate.
Other winter crops face the same risk. Potatoes, onions and tomatoes need steady water, and growers in Sindh and southern Punjab have few alternatives when canals run low. Sugarcane growers are also waiting on a delayed crushing season, which adds to the strain on farm incomes.
Water stress is not new to the two provinces. Karachi is already coping with a water shortage today, and work on the Tarbela fifth extension has run into trouble. Each dry season tests a system built for a wetter era, and this Rabi season looks set to test it again.
Harvest outlook stays near average
There is some comfort in the outlook. The Food Security Outlook from FEWS NET for October 2026 to May 2027 expects the national Rabi wheat harvest to stay around average, despite the water stress. It points to average to above-average winter rainfall as one reason.
Even so, the same outlook warns that persistent irrigation shortages, below-average groundwater and high input and fuel costs will hold back production, mainly in Punjab and Sindh. Rain can help, but it cannot replace canal water on the scale farmers need.
The next few weeks will show how the season plays out. If winter rain arrives on time and canal releases are managed well, the crop can still do fine. If the dry spell holds, the 22 per cent shortfall will bite, and the cost will land first on farmers, then on flour prices. Pakistani farmers have already taken their climate fight to foreign courts, and climate talks in Antalya are weighing the same pressures.
Frequently asked questions
How big is the Rabi water shortfall?
IRSA has approved a 22 per cent irrigation water shortfall for the Rabi season, which runs from October 1, 2026, to March 31, 2027. Expected inflows are 21.268 million acre-feet against planned withdrawals of 29.183 million acre-feet.
Which crops are at risk?
Wheat faces the biggest risk as the main Rabi crop. Tobacco, barley, mustard, gram, lentils, potatoes, onions and tomatoes could also suffer if irrigation supplies fall short at key growth stages.
How much water do the reservoirs hold?
Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma hold a combined 6.167 million acre-feet of usable water. Tarbela holds 2.456 million acre-feet, Mangla holds 3.462 million acre-feet and Chashma holds 249,000 acre-feet.
Will the wheat harvest fall?
FEWS NET expects the national Rabi wheat harvest to stay around average, helped by average to above-average winter rainfall. It warns that irrigation shortages, low groundwater and high input costs will still hold back production in Punjab and Sindh.
Why are outflows higher than inflows?
Dams release stored water to meet irrigation demand even as river inflows drop in winter. At Tarbela, outflow is 45,000 cusecs against inflow of 25,600 cusecs, and at Mangla, outflow is 33,000 cusecs against inflow of 3,800 cusecs.
