2026 ‘Most Likely’ Second-Hottest Year on Record

The world is on track for 2026 to be the second-hottest year on record, as an exceptionally strong El Nino weather pattern adds heat to human-driven global warming, the European Union’s climate monitor said on Friday.

This year still has a “20 per cent chance of tying or exceeding” 2024 as the warmest ever seen, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said in a monthly bulletin. Global temperatures are now “virtually certain” to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in 2026, it added.

The four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to top 1.5C, the preferred limit set in the Paris Agreement to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

Second-hottest year: warmest October on record

The world experienced its warmest October on record, with average global surface air temperatures 1.75C above pre-industrial times, Copernicus said. Pre-industrial times are defined as the period from 1850 to 1900.

It was the third straight month in which temperatures passed 1.5C above that baseline.

“October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates Copernicus.

“An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities,” she said.

El Nino has yet to peak

Global forecasters have been warning for months that this El Nino, which is expected to peak later this year, would likely become the strongest ever observed. The weather pattern set an all-time temperature record in a key Pacific zone last month, Copernicus said.

El Nino is the warming phase of a natural climate cycle. It temporarily raises sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which can increase the risk of drought and flooding and make man-made global warming worse.

Forecasters say El Nino could help make 2027 the hottest year on record.

The latest bulletin comes as nations prepare to meet on Monday for the UN’s two-week COP31 climate summit in Turkey. The summit follows a year marked by deadly floods in Nepal, searing heatwaves in Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.

What the 1.5C limit means

Nations agreed at the 2015 UN climate talks in Paris to keep global warming “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5C. But the United Nations declared in September that the long-term 1.5C target would be missed in a matter of years.

Scientists say it is crucial to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to limit the period of “overshoot” above 1.5C and bring temperatures back down as quickly as possible.

Passing 1.5C in a single year is not the same as breaching the Paris target, which is measured over decades. But each year above the line adds to the pressure on the target and to the damage from heat, floods and fires.

Pakistan felt the heat too

Pakistan has had its own taste of the record warmth. October 2026 was Pakistan’s sixth-hottest October in 66 years, according to the country’s weather records. The country sits on the front line of climate change, with heatwaves, floods and shifting rains already shaping daily life.

The strong El Nino is also part of the story behind that heat. Feature Pakistan has tracked the pattern through the year, with a super El Nino heat-deaths tracker and the UN’s warning that El Nino was off the charts. At home, Punjab has responded with a green credit programme aimed at jobs and cleaner air.

The COP31 summit in Turkey will test whether governments can agree on faster cuts to emissions. For Pakistan, the talks matter directly, since the country’s floods and heatwaves are driven by the same warming the summit is meant to slow.

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Probably not. It is most likely to rank second, behind 2024, though Copernicus gives it a 20 per cent chance of tying or passing 2024.

What is El Nino?

The warming phase of a natural climate cycle in the tropical Pacific. It temporarily raises sea temperatures and can increase the risk of drought and flooding.

Why does 1.5C matter?

It is the preferred limit set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Passing it raises the risk of severe heat, floods and other climate damage.

What happens next?

Nations meet on Monday for the two-week COP31 climate summit in Turkey, and forecasters say El Nino could make 2027 the hottest year on record.