AI, Gulf Policy Shifts Threaten Migrant Jobs
AI and changing labour policies in Gulf states could affect up to seven out of 10 migrant jobs traditionally taken by migrant workers, economists warned at an international conference on migration in Lahore. The warning came with a second message: record remittance inflows may be hiding a coming fall in overseas employment opportunities for workers from countries such as Pakistan.
Dr Nasir Iqbal of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) told the conference that 2026 has fundamentally reshaped the migration picture. The ongoing conflict in the region and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence have changed how Gulf states approach migrant labour, with greater emphasis on selecting workers by skills, occupations and migration pathways.
Sending countries, he added, are becoming active partners in screening and preparing workers, which would benefit both sides. He cautioned, however, that while remittances continue to dominate the debate, current inflows may hide a future decline in overseas jobs.
A conference on a changing map
The warning came at the two-day Fourth International Conference, “Future Drivers of International Migration from Asia”, organised by the Centre on International Migration, Remittances and Diaspora (CIMRAD) at the Lahore School of Economics. Scholars, researchers and policy specialists from Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, the Philippines and Sri Lanka attended.
The second day of the conference focused on irregular migration, and a high-level session examined the impact of the US-Iran-Israel conflict. Dr Nasra M. Shah delivered the vote of thanks at the close.
Other speakers pointed to tighter rules and a changing job market. Francoise De Bel-Air, a senior fellow at the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme, said opportunities are growing for skilled professionals across North America, Europe and the Gulf. Traditional routes for low-skilled and semi-skilled workers, she said, face increasing restrictions.
Froilan Malit, an Asia-Middle East labour migration specialist, argued that the Asia-Gulf corridor remains the most resilient labour migration system in the Global South. He said skill recognition systems between regions need further study and should be built into foreign policy frameworks for South-South labour migration.
Marco Mogiani of the International Centre for Migration Policy Development said evolving European Union policies, including stricter border controls, biometric surveillance and return measures, have influenced migration patterns from Pakistan and Bangladesh. The discussion also covered the two countries’ anti-smuggling and migration policies and their effect on routes, departures and migrant casualties.
Why people still leave, and what puts them at risk
Dr Fareeha Zafar of the Lahore School of Economics identified political instability, economic insecurity, unemployment and limited access to quality education as the main drivers of irregular migration from Asia. She also highlighted the gender aspects of the problem, noting that women face greater vulnerabilities, including the risk of human trafficking, along irregular transit routes.
Country studies at the conference showed how deeply some economies rely on migration. Dr Richa Shivakoti said Nepal remains heavily dependent on labour migration, with remittances contributing about 33 per cent of its GDP. She cited unemployment, political and economic uncertainty, climate-related disasters and a growing culture of migration among young people.
Dr Maruja MB Asis said limited decent jobs at home and steady overseas demand drive migration from the Philippines. She noted the feminisation and diversification of labour migration there, and named an ageing population, declining fertility and digitalisation as emerging factors.
What the warning means for Pakistan migrant jobs
The speakers said Pakistan’s migration shows both continuity and change. Traditional labour migration to the Gulf Cooperation Council states continues, alongside growing skilled migration to Western countries. Economic instability, a pro-migration government policy and remittances were named as key drivers, while skill mismatches and geopolitical conflicts were named as the main challenges.
Migration pressures in countries such as Pakistan and Nepal are likely to stay high, the speakers added, because of demographic shifts and limited domestic opportunities. They urged researchers to take a forward-looking view of evolving global skills needs and the development priorities of both sending and receiving countries.
For Pakistan, the practical lesson is about skills. If Gulf employers select workers by skill and occupation, as Dr Iqbal warned, then training and certification matter more than numbers alone. Workers with recognised skills will have more routes open to them, while low-skilled workers will face narrower ones.
That message sits alongside a contrasting push from employers in the Gulf. Feature Pakistan has reported that Saudi firms were told to hire more Pakistani workers, and Pakistan is also pushing an early GCC free trade agreement to widen economic ties with Gulf states. Demand for Pakistani workers has not vanished, but the conference warning is that the kind of worker in demand is changing.
Frequently asked questions
How many migrant jobs could be affected?
Up to seven out of 10 jobs traditionally taken by migrant workers could be affected by artificial intelligence and changing Gulf labour policies, according to economists at the Lahore conference.
Why would remittances hide the problem?
Current remittance inflows remain strong, but Dr Nasir Iqbal cautioned that they may hide a future decline in overseas employment opportunities, since today’s payments come from workers who left earlier.
Who faces the greatest risk?
Low-skilled and semi-skilled workers face increasing restrictions, while opportunities are growing for skilled professionals across North America, Europe and the Gulf.
What should Pakistan do, according to the conference?
Speakers pointed to skill recognition, better screening and preparation of workers, and policies built around the skills Gulf employers now seek, rather than relying on low-skilled migration alone.
