The New Zealand election results are too close to call, with early counts showing the governing National Party and the opposition Labour Party deadlocked after a campaign dominated by the cost of living.
With about four-fifths of the vote counted on Saturday, the centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, held 29.4 per cent of the party vote, just ahead of centre-left Labour, led by Chris Hipkins, on 29.0 per cent.
Al Jazeera reported that with more than half the results counted, both main parties were polling just short of 30 per cent, and the current three-party ruling coalition led by National would hold a majority of just one seat.
New Zealand election results: a race that narrowed to nothing
The final opinion poll, released on Friday, had put Labour at 30 per cent, just ahead of National. The early count has kept the two parties within a fraction of a point of each other. That is why the result cannot be called yet. The preliminary figures are election-night numbers, not the final count. The Electoral Commission warns that they are likely to change, and they are not directly comparable with the official results, which are expected on November 27.
The count also includes advance votes, which can be tallied on election day, alongside ordinary votes cast on Saturday. Nearly 3.8 million people were eligible to vote. Polling stations closed at 7pm local time, and the commission aimed to release preliminary results from about 95 per cent of polling stations by the end of election night.
The smaller parties hold the balance
Behind the two main parties, the Greens were on 13.4 per cent, ACT New Zealand on 11 per cent, and New Zealand First on 9.8 per cent, with about 80 per cent of the vote counted.
The most striking result of the night belongs to the Opportunity Party, a small centrist party that was on 5.9 per cent. That is above the 5 per cent threshold needed to enter parliament, and the party is projected to win seven seats. It is led by 38-year-old newcomer Qiulae Wong, whose flagship policy is a universal basic income funded by a land value tax.
If the early numbers hold, Opportunity could become a kingmaker. The first projections suggested a 130-seat parliament, where 66 seats make a majority. The National, ACT and New Zealand First coalition was projected to hold 65 seats, one short, while the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori held a combined 58. Those figures were still moving as the count continued.
Why the cost of living decided the campaign
The election has at times been called the “supermarket election”, because grocery prices and supermarket competition became a central battleground.
An Ipsos poll released on November 1 found that inflation and the cost of living were the top concern for 64 per cent of New Zealanders, with healthcare second at 45 per cent. The campaign was fought on a struggling economy and voter disillusionment with both of the biggest parties.
That frustration showed in the vote. Neither main party is close to 30 per cent on the early count, and voters spread their support across the smaller parties, which is why the coalition maths is so tight.
How New Zealand’s system works
New Zealand elects its parliament under a mixed-member proportional system, known as MMP. Every voter casts two votes: one for a local member of parliament, and one for a party.
Seats are then shared out in proportion to the party vote, which is why a party with 5 per cent of the vote can expect about 5 per cent of the seats. A party must win at least 5 per cent of the party vote, or one electorate seat, to enter parliament.
There is no set timeframe for forming a government. Coalition talks can take days or weeks, and the special votes, including ballots cast by New Zealanders living abroad, are counted in the official result on November 27.
A region watching the count
The result is being watched beyond New Zealand. Voters in the United States have just delivered their own verdict in the midterm elections, where Democrats expanded their House majority, and Pakistan has said the outcome will not unravel its ties with Washington. In France, too, the cost of living is driving politics onto the streets, as Yellow Vest protesters march in Paris against high prices. Pakistan also signed a cybercrime cooperation agreement with Sudan this week.
For now, the only certainty in Wellington is uncertainty. The two main parties are level, the coalition arithmetic is balanced on a single seat, and a new party has arrived in parliament. The count will settle the numbers. The talks that follow will settle the government.
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the New Zealand election?
Neither main party has won yet. With about 80 per cent of the vote counted, National led Labour by less than half a point, 29.4 per cent to 29.0 per cent. The result is too close to call.
What is the Opportunity Party?
A small centrist party led by 38-year-old Qiulae Wong, whose flagship policy is a universal basic income funded by a land value tax. Early results put it on about 5.9 per cent, above the 5 per cent threshold, with a projected seven seats in parliament.
When will the final result be known?
The Electoral Commission expects to release preliminary results from about 95 per cent of polling stations by the end of election night. The official count, including overseas ballots, is due on November 27.
How does New Zealand choose its government?
Under the mixed-member proportional system, voters cast one vote for a local member and one for a party, and seats are shared in proportion to the party vote. With no party near a majority, the government is formed through coalition talks, which have no set deadline.
