Grynspan Leads UN Secretary-General Poll
Former Costa Rican vice president Rebeca Grynspan has extended her lead in the race to become the 10th United Nations secretary-general, winning 11 “encourage” votes in the UN secretary-general poll, the Security Council’s seventh informal straw poll on Friday, October 30, 2026. It was her strongest showing in seven ballots to date.
Grynspan received 11 votes in favour and four against on the 15-member council, with no “no opinion” votes. The result keeps her in front, but it does not settle the race, because the ballot was not coded in a way that shows how the five permanent members voted.
Dawn reported that securing the council’s recommendation requires at least nine positive votes and no “discourage” votes from the permanent members: France, Britain, the United States, Russia and China. Until the council can show that bar has been cleared, Grynspan’s lead remains a lead in an informal poll, not a recommendation.
How the seventh UN secretary-general poll went
Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, came second with nine “encourage” votes, four “discourage” votes and two “no opinion” votes. Guyana’s ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett came third with eight in favour, six against and one “no opinion”. The United Arab Emirates diplomat Lana Nusseibeh, who entered the race on October 21, came fourth in her first ballot, with seven in favour, six against and two “no opinion”. Uganda’s Olara Otunnu followed with four in favour and 11 against, while Ecuador’s Maria Fernanda Espinosa received two in favour, 10 against and three “no opinion”, and Ivonne A-Baki, also from Ecuador but nominated by Tonga, received one in favour and 14 against.
PassBlue reported that the council returned to plain, undifferentiated ballots for this round after using colour-coded ballots on October 16 to distinguish permanent members from elected members. The next straw poll, whose date is yet to be set, could return to colour-coded ballots, which would show far more clearly whether any permanent member is blocking a candidate.
Who Rebeca Grynspan is
Grynspan, 70, is a Costa Rican economist who served as her country’s second vice president from 1994 to 1998. She has led the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) since 2021, the first woman to hold that post, and stepped back from its day-to-day duties while campaigning. If elected, she would be the first woman to serve as UN secretary-general.
Grynspan has led most rounds of the race. Reuters noted that five of the six earlier polls put her narrowly ahead, with one poll in August placing Rodrigues-Birkett in the top spot.
What the winner will face
Whoever wins will take office on January 1, 2027, as Guterres finishes his second five-year term on December 31, 2026. PassBlue noted only nine weeks remained until that handover when the seventh poll was held. The next secretary-general will have to tackle several wars, cutbacks in American contributions to the UN, and the body’s declining political relevance as Washington has pulled out of dozens of its agencies.
The race is not closed. Hours after the seventh poll, a new candidate jumped in: Feridun Sinirlioglu, the head of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe and a former Turkish envoy to the UN, nominated by Turkiye.
Regional rotation is also shaping it. Speculation around the poll linked support for Grynspan to the informal geographic rotation system, under which the post is due to go to Latin America and the Caribbean this time. On October 27, member states from the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States issued a joint statement calling on the council to ensure regional rotation is respected.
Frequently asked questions
Who leads the UN secretary-general poll?
Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica leads after the seventh informal straw poll on October 30, 2026, with 11 “encourage” votes and four “discourage” votes.
How many votes does a candidate need to win the council’s recommendation?
A candidate needs at least nine “encourage” votes from the 15-member Security Council and no “discourage” vote from any of the five permanent members: France, Britain, the United States, Russia and China.
When does Antonio Guterres leave office?
Guterres finishes his second term on December 31, 2026. His successor takes office on January 1, 2027.
Who are the other candidates in the race?
Rafael Grossi of Argentina, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana, Lana Nusseibeh of the UAE, Olara Otunnu of Uganda, Maria Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador and Ivonne A-Baki, nominated by Tonga.
