Winter Electricity Bills May Rise Two to Three Times
Winter electricity bills in Pakistan may rise two to three times between December and February, as fuel price adjustments climb sharply during the cold months. Power Division sources have warned that the next three months will be a difficult period for consumers, with higher generation costs and more load management on the way.
Three pressures arrive together in winter. Hydropower generation falls when river flows drop. Local gas for power plants runs short, since household demand rises in the cold months. At the same time, international prices for LNG, coal and other fuels have stayed high.
The Indus River System Authority has estimated a water shortage of more than 22 per cent for the winter period, which will cut hydel output and force plants to costlier fuels. Sources said the fuel price adjustment could therefore increase two to three times across December, January and February.
Winter electricity bills: what is already in the pipeline
Winter electricity bills will not rise from one charge alone. Two separate adjustments are moving through the system, and both land on consumer bills.
First, a quarterly adjustment is expected to raise the tariff by Rs1.30 per unit, which would place an additional burden of around Rs22 billion on consumers. For a household using 300 units in a month, that single adjustment adds Rs390 to the bill before taxes and surcharges.
Second, the September fuel price adjustment is already before the regulator. The Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) has sought an increase of Rs2.56 per unit in November bills, which would add around Rs33 billion in total. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has held a public hearing on the request and reserved its decision.
At the hearing, CPPA officials said the actual fuel cost of generation in September reached Rs10.02 per unit, against a reference cost of Rs7.46 per unit. Total generation cost for the month stood at Rs127.87 billion, led by imported coal at Rs37.14 billion and LNG at Rs31.93 billion.
Sources said the September adjustment could have reached Rs5 to Rs6 per unit without intervention, including two-hour load management, which limited the request to Rs2.56. Even so, the final impact on November bills will depend on NEPRA’s decision, and officials expect the net increase to be around Rs1.45 per unit once an earlier positive adjustment expires.
Why a fuel adjustment is not an ordinary tariff rise
A fuel price adjustment works differently from a normal tariff increase. It passes the difference between the fuel cost assumed in the tariff and the fuel cost actually incurred straight through to consumers, after the event. When fuel costs rise above the reference level, the adjustment rises. When they fall, it should fall too.
That mechanism explains winter’s exposure: the reference cost stays fixed, while actual costs move with hydel output, gas availability and world fuel prices.
NEPRA has already fined the CPPA and the National Transmission and Despatch Company Rs60 million over abnormal fuel costs in January 2024, when the actual cost reached Rs14.60 per unit against a Rs7.49 benchmark.
What this means alongside other energy costs
The winter warning arrives while other energy costs are already climbing. OGRA raised October RLNG prices by up to 15.27 per cent, reversing a 20 per cent cut in September, and higher RLNG prices feed directly into generation costs for December. Diesel rose by Rs2.29 per litre in the latest price revision, with petrol unchanged. The Senate is also considering a bill for quarterly gas pricing, which would change how often gas prices are reviewed. Short-term inflation, meanwhile, stayed in double digits on energy and food costs.
None of these charges has yet been confirmed as a final winter tariff. The two-to-three-times warning comes from Power Division sources, not from a NEPRA determination. Consumers should therefore treat the warning as a signal to expect higher bills, not as a fixed figure.
With hydel output falling, local gas short and world fuel prices high, the adjustments added to bills from December to February are set to climb. Households that plan for higher winter bills now will face less of a shock when the first adjusted bills arrive.
