Israel election exit polls gave the opposition bloc a narrow lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp as voting ended on Tuesday, but neither side reached an outright majority. The polls projected 52 or 53 seats for the opposition bloc and 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc in the 120-seat Knesset.
The vote was Israel’s first national election since the October 7, 2023 attack. Polls closed at 10pm Israel time, which was 1am in Pakistan. The figures are exit poll projections from Channels 11, 12 and 13. They are not final results, and the final count and coalition talks will decide who forms the next government.
Israel election exit polls: the arithmetic of a hung parliament
A party or bloc needs 61 seats for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. On the exit poll figures, the opposition bloc falls eight or nine seats short of that line, while Netanyahu’s bloc falls 11 seats short. That gap is where the next government will be decided, in talks with smaller parties.
Netanyahu’s Likud would still be the largest single party, with a projected 24 or 25 seats. That helps in coalition talks, but it still needs partners, and the exit polls leave both camps hunting for them.
Turnout was high. By 6pm, 66.7 per cent of voters had cast ballots, the highest figure at that point in the day since such statistics were first recorded in 1973, according to the Central Elections Committee. Some 7.3 million people were eligible to vote, and tens of thousands of Israelis were estimated to have flown in from abroad.
Netanyahu and Eisenkot: a contest of two records
Netanyahu, 77, has served as prime minister on and off for more than 19 years, making him Israel’s longest-serving premier. He cast himself as the only person who could keep Israel safe, and talked up his endorsement by United States President Donald Trump.
His main rival is Gadi Eisenkot, 66, a former military chief who leads the Yashar party. Eisenkot heads an informal opposition bloc that runs from the right to the centre-left, including former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party.
Eisenkot has vowed to prevent a Palestinian state, back settlements, and crack down on violent settlers. Before voting, he visited the grave of his son Gal, who died fighting in Gaza, and called on Israelis to replace “the worst government since the state was established”.
The Arab vote became a flashpoint
Turnout among Israeli Arabs, who make up about 21 per cent of the population, appeared unusually high, as did turnout in east Jerusalem. Netanyahu warned on Tuesday of Arabs voting by the busload, writing on social media that Israel could wake up to a “government of the left wing and Muslim Brotherhood”.
Netanyahu also said three senior United Arab List officials had been arrested with envelopes full of cash in the south. Dean Livne, acting director general of the Central Elections Committee, said police had caught individuals who tried to bribe voters away from polling stations, in a localised case under investigation.
United Arab List head Mansour Abbas, who could emerge as a kingmaker in a close parliament, accused Netanyahu of “lying and inciting” to mobilise his own voters.
There were other tense moments on polling day. Likud asked, without success, to keep polls open past 10pm, which the opposition called a pretext to challenge the results. In Tel Aviv, the Democrats said police arrested a man with a knife who had moved threateningly towards Golan, who blamed the “poison machine” of Netanyahu.
Why this result has been building for months
Feature Pakistan has followed the road to this vote. Bill Ackman said Ben-Gvir and Smotrich should not serve in the next Israeli government, in Ackman Says Ben-Gvir, Smotrich Must Not Serve Again. Arab-Israeli parties had formed a bloc aimed at ousting Netanyahu in Arab-Israeli Bloc Aims to Oust Netanyahu in Vote. Eisenkot had called Netanyahu unfit to lead in Eisenkot Calls Netanyahu Unfit to Lead Israel. Netanyahu had denied reports of a clash with his army chief in Netanyahu Denies Clash With Army Chief Over Iran.
